Here is another's thoughts on the true cost of inflation...
Pimco's Gross Says U.S. Underestimating Inflation (Update2)
By Lester Pimentel
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Bill Gross said the U.S. underestimates inflation by at least 1 percent, making some emerging markets more attractive investment candidates.
Changes in the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures prices over the past 25 years have led to the understating of inflation, Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, said in a commentary on the company's Web site today. The Federal Reserve's focus on ``core'' instead of ``headline'' inflation has also helped understate the increase in prices, he said.
Pimco favors commodity-based assets and foreign equities that are denominated in currencies that demonstrate ``authentic'' real growth and inflation rates. Investors should shun U.S. Treasuries and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, because of their negative ``unreal'' yields as a result of ``artificially low inflation,'' he said.
| 2008/5/22 12:19||Profile|
This relates to a previous article talking about how the public pension funds would begin reflecting the losses experienced by other Wall
Giant Calif. land partnership files for Chapter 11
Monday June 9, 7:16 am ET
15,000-acre Calif. real estate business files for Chap. 11; Public pension is main investor
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- A 15,000-acre California real estate partnership that has the nation's largest public employees pension fund as its main investor has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
LandSource Communities Development LLC issued a news release late Sunday to announce the bankruptcy filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. The partnership's assets include 15,000 acres of undeveloped land north of Los Angeles in the Santa Clarita Valley, making it one of the largest land deals to falter amid the national housing glut.
The California Public Employees' Retirement System, its main investor, did not immediately return calls early Monday.
LandSource had been trying for months to restructure a $1.24 billion debt, the company said. It received a default notice on April 22 after missing a payment when a decline in the assessed value of that Southern California land holding triggered an additional charge.
"LandSource believes chapter 11 provides the most effective means for the partnership to preserve the values of its business...while it works with creditors to achieve a long-term restructuring," spokeswoman Tamara Taylor said in the release.
Attempts to reach Taylor and LandSource before business hours were unsuccessful.
LandSource operates in California, Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, Nevada and Texas. The partnership announced it has received a $135 million line of credit from a group of lenders led by Barclays Bank, allowing it to fund operations during the Chapter 11 period.
CalPERS, with $254.8 billion in assets, is involved in LandSource through its participation in MW Housing Partners, an investment fund managed by MacFarlane Partners LLC.
MW Housing Partners acquired 68 percent of the Santa Clarita property from home builder Lennar Corp. and LNR Property Corp., a unit of Cerberus Capital Management LP.
Lennar and LNR each maintained a 16 percent interest in LandSource.
Taylor last month told the Associated Press that she did not know the size of CalPERS' stake in MW Housing Partners.
CalPERS provides pension, health care and other retirement services for about 1.5 million public employees.
| 2008/6/9 8:25||Profile|
Municipal Market `Fire in the Disco' Burns Borrowers (Update1)
By William Selway and Martin Z. Braun
July 3 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. lost their AAA credit ratings. The biggest hospital in Sarasota, Florida, is paying the price.
David Verinder, chief financial officer of the Sarasota Memorial Health Care System, received daily e-mail messages last month informing him that interest costs on an $83 million bond issue were rising to 1.45 percent, to 1.75 percent, to 3.25 percent, to 5.9 percent, and finally to 9 percent by June 24, a more than fivefold increase.
``When rates started going up as quickly as they were, it certainly caused a great deal of stress,'' Verinder said.
The daily increases by Wachovia Corp. had nothing to do with the financial health of Sarasota Memorial. Hospitals, airports, school districts and local governments around the country have been socked with spiraling interest bills on many of the $80 billion of insured variable-rate bonds. When units of MBIA and Ambac, the two largest bond insurers, lost the top ratings from Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service last month, the institutions they insured did too.
The downgrades are the latest blow to the $2.66 trillion municipal bond market, which is on track to have its worst yearly performance since 1999, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Municipal Master Index. The index fell 0.08 percent in the first half of 2008, taking reinvested income into account.
In March, the Sarasota health network had tried to escape high rates by converting the bonds from auction-rate securities. The February collapse of the $330 billion market where rates are determined through periodic bidding drove interest costs as high as 11 percent.
``We really believed we would be able to put this band-aid on it,'' said Verinder, who is now grappling with $32,000 a day in unexpected costs that may force him to delay spending on new CT scanners and magnetic resonance imaging machines.
Losses suffered by bond insurers on securities tied to U.S. home loans have cascaded through financial markets to hurt local governments whose budgets are already being squeezed by the slowest pace of economic growth in five years.
``Why are you punished for having insurance, even if the insurance is no good?'' said Randall Walker, the director of Nevada's Clark County Department of Aviation, which oversees McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas. ``It doesn't make much sense, but that's the market.''
The rate on $240 million of the airport's bonds jumped to 9 percent on June 25, more than three times the 2.5 percent rate on June 4, threatening to saddle McCarran with $12 million in additional annual costs.
The higher rates on debt with downgraded insurance contrast with the 1.63 percent average on uninsured debt with AAA ratings, according to a Bloomberg index as of June 26.
The crisis is similar to the one that erupted in February, when Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. and XL Capital Assurance Inc. lost their AAA ratings. That prompted investors to shun the auction-rate securities they backed and Wall Street dealers to abandon support of the market. Thousands of auctions failed, resulting in penalty rates as high as 20 percent and leaving holders unable to get out of their investments.
Now, as then, the soaring interest burden isn't related to any increased default risk on the part of towns and schools, which have the power to raise taxes to meet debt payments. Instead, it stems from concern among investors that the tumbling credit ratings of the bond insurers will trigger clauses that allow the banks that act as buyers of last resort to walk away.
June Rating Cuts
Bond-insurance units of Armonk, New York-based MBIA and New York-based Ambac had their financial strength ratings cut to AA from AAA on June 5 by S&P. Moody's followed two weeks later, dropping MBIA to A2 and Ambac to Aa3.
In the first quarter, Wall Street brokers were already deluged with unwanted bonds, which boosted their holdings of municipal debt 32 percent to a record $66 billion, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve.
Without assurance that the bonds can be turned into cash easily, the banks that set the rates on the bonds and find buyers need to turn to mutual funds and other long-term investors, who demand higher returns.
``Everybody's got to be a little leery if they get into these,'' said Robert Millikan, who manages $5 billion as director of fixed income at BB&T Asset Management in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Rates on $10 million of bonds sold by the Daniel Boone Area School District in Birdsboro, Pennsylvania, a 5,200-person town 50 miles (80 kilometers) northwest of Philadelphia, reached 9 percent on June 24, up fourfold from the start of the month and enough to add $608,000 to the district's annual bills.
``That would be a budget buster for sure,'' said Robert Bruchak, the business manager for the school district, which has an annual budget of $47 million. ``We have to implement a game plan here.''
The district is being penalized because Ambac hasn't kept up its responsibility to maintain the credit rating backing the bonds, Bruchak said.
``We're not getting what we paid for anymore, bottom line,'' he said. ``We paid to have a very good rating and a very low interest rate, and we've lost that.''
The interest rate on $44 million of bonds for the San Francisco Ballet more than doubled to 12 percent last month as Financial Guaranty Insurance, which insured the debt, was cut below investment grade. In San Francisco, the Asian Art Museum's rate on $120 million of bonds jumped as high as 9 percent from 1.75 percent at the start of June before sliding back to 7.75 percent.
Just as the auction-rate breakdown caused borrowers to make plans to replace or change terms on at least $87 billion of the securities, schools and towns now are rushing to find banks to agree to act as buyers of last resort for floating-rate bonds. Fees for bank letters of credit have quadrupled to as much as 1 percentage point.
``It's the fire in the discotheque,'' said Peter Demirali, a vice president at Vineland, New Jersey-based Cumberland Advisors Inc., which has $1 billion of assets under management. ``Everyone can't get out all at the same time.''
The Las Vegas airport plans to line up a new letter of credit for its bonds, betting it will drive the rate back down, Walker said. If that fails, he'll refinance them into new variable-rate bonds without insurance, as he had to do with five separate bond issues battered by the other insurer downgrades earlier this year.
The Sarasota Memorial Health Care System is taking steps to push rates lower by working with its bank, Wachovia, over the next few months, said Verinder, the CFO.
``We certainly have our challenges,'' he said.
(end of article)
As time goes on this "credit bubble" continues to peal like an onion...
Everyone is talking about the real estate bubble or the oil bubble or the commodities bubble, but not many are talking about what is really "popping"...the credit bubble.
| 2008/7/3 15:29||Profile|
Another day another $75,000,000,000.00 disappears into thin air....
Is this foundation built on sand or the Rock?
Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Plunge on Capital Concerns (Update4)
By Jody Shenn and Shannon D. Harrington
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae fell to the lowest in 13 years in New York Stock Exchange composite trading as concerns grew the two largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies may need to raise more capital to overcome writedowns and satisfy new accounting rules.
Freddie Mac fell 18 percent and Fannie Mae dropped 16 percent after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analysts said in a report today that an accounting change may force them to raise a combined $75 billion. Speculation that the companies may take further writedowns also weighed on the stock, said John Tierney, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York.
``There's a lot of apprehension about writedowns,'' Tierney said. ``If they have writedowns, they have to raise capital. How much do they raise and how easily can they do that? Those are the questions that everybody is asking.''
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have declined more than 60 percent this year, with declines accelerating in the past two weeks, on concern the companies' capital raisings since December may not be enough to overcome writedowns. Washington-based Fannie Mae so far has raised $6 billion in capital to offset writedowns on mortgages it owns or guarantees. Freddie Mac, based in McLean, Virginia, raised $13.5 billion since December and said last week plans to add $5.5 billion probably won't be fulfilled until late next month.
Freddie Mac fell $2.59 to $11.91 after earlier dropping as low as $10.28. Fannie Mae declined $3.04 to $15.74 and earlier fell to $14.65.
The new FAS 140 rule that seeks to stop companies keeping assets in off-balance sheet entities may force Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring mortgages back onto their books, requiring them to put up capital, Lehman analysts led by Bruce Harting wrote in a note to clients today.
Fannie Mae would need to add $46 billion of capital and Freddie Mac would need about $29 billion, the Lehman analysts wrote.
The companies will probably get an exemption from the rule because it would be ``very difficult'' for them to raise that amount of capital, the analysts said.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, ``have been battered every single trading session,'' said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist for The Hartford, which manages $380 billion in Hartford, Connecticut. ``At some point they're going to stabilize.''
As mortgage delinquencies grow at a record pace, the companies likely will take further losses, Tierney said. Banks repossessed twice as many homes in May as they did a year ago and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a real estate database in Irvine, California. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 15.3 percent in April by the most on record, S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.
``There's probably an accumulation of events today that has focused investor selling,'' said Christopher Sullivan, who oversees $1.3 billion as chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were both trading at more than $60 as recently as October as they distanced themselves from accounting frauds that caused more than $11 billion of restatements. Then defaults on subprime mortgages caused the credit markets to seize up and credit losses to rise. The companies, which own or guarantee almost half of the $12 trillion in U.S. residential mortgages, were so integral to boosting the housing market that Congress lifted restrictions on their buying power to help revive the economy.
``The provision discussed by Lehman could have an effect on our ability to serve the housing mission,'' Freddie Mac spokeswoman Sharon McHale said. ``We would hope FASB would take into account our mission'' when it writes the final rule, McHale said.
Brian Faith, a Fannie Mae spokesman, declined to comment.
Yields on agency mortgage securities relative to U.S. Treasuries rose to the highest since March 13 on concern that banks may need to sell off the debt.
Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. bank, may sell mortgage assets after buying Countrywide Financial Corp., Kenneth Hackel, the managing director of fixed-income strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut, said in a note to clients.
``Balance sheets are constrained,'' Hackel said, referring to agency mortgage bonds. Bank of America spokesman Scott Silvestri declined to comment.
The difference between yields on the Bloomberg index for Fannie Mae's current-coupon, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year government notes widened 7 basis points, to 204 basis points. The spread has climbed 18 basis points since June 18.
Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, said it's ``unlikely'' to raise capital until after reporting second-quarter earnings next month.
Executives told investors in May that the company would obtain $5.5 billion in additional reserves by ``mid-year,'' after registering its common stock with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The cost to protect the subordinated debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose to the highest since March 17, according to CMA Datavision in London. Credit-default swaps tied to debt of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae rose 18 basis points to 195 basis points, indicating deteriorating perceptions about the companies' credit quality, CMA data show.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline, the opposite.
A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
Fannie Mae contracts closed at a record 260 basis points on March 13, according to CMA prices. Freddie Mac contracts reached 263 basis points on the same day.
``The stock market has just recently been catching up with the risk perceptions of the bond market,'' James Caron, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy at Morgan Stanley in New York.
| 2008/7/7 21:23||Profile|
We will often discuss the events of the 1960's as the turning point in American history. We often discuss the moral decline that manifested itself in the use of drugs, sex, and general moral decay. In the last four or five years that I have participated on SI, not much is said of the financial decay that also began in the 1960's.
There is an oldtime preacher in NC that says that we "church" people get along well with those who share the same sin issues. It is easy for us to point out abortion, drugs, fornication, adultery... and find common ground in our opposition to these manifestations in others.
I find that we on SI find no common ground on the depravity of our financial and government systems...
| 2008/7/8 10:24||Profile|
I may have posted this before but Willard Cantelon authored a book titled 'The Day The Dollar Dies' back in 1973. It is like reading today's headlines.
I guess one should not be surprised that 35 years later so few are listening. No one will be able to say they were not warned.
Anyway it is worth reading.
In His Love
| 2008/7/8 20:10||Profile|
Why would one not expect that our financial system would mirror the depravity that is manifesting itself in all other aspects of American society?....
Along with the sex, drugs, and rock and roll we see that Satan has also worked his deception in our financial system....
The Politics of Deception
Historian Kevin Phillips on decades of bi-partisan deceit
BY TONY ALLISON
Kevin Phillips, author of Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism, has expertly detailed the history of false economic achievement in a recent Harpers Magazine article. The culmination of 40+ years of gradual but consistent distortion of economic statistics have come home to roost and explain much of our current morass. Inflation statistics help determine interest rates, cost-of-living increases for wages and Social Security benefits as well as interest payments on the national debt. Inflation statistics also affect the planning, spending, saving and investing habits of every American. And lastly, decades of understated inflation means that GDP growth has been overstated.
It is Phillips contention that the under-measurement of inflation has put the country at great risk. To acknowledge the reality would send interest rates sharply higher. This would directly affect the continued viability of the massive build-up of debt, both public and private, that has fueled the economy over the last two decades. In addition, if the true state of inflation were acknowledged, the government would face huge increases in pension, retirement benefits and borrowing costs, overwhelming an already debt-burdened federal budget. Ultimately of course, the market will acknowledge the truth about inflation and interest rates will climb anyway. If government statistics remain distorted, institutional trust and credibility will be just two more victims of inflation.
No discouraged workers in Camelot
The long campaign of statistical massage began in the Kennedy Administration. Seeking a way to lower the high jobless statistics and make things look a little more like Camelot, the Administration pushed through a change that jobless Americans who had stopped looking for work were to be labeled discouraged workers. They were then left off the unemployment statistics. The workers were still unemployed, but no longer counted as such. Problem solved.
Johnsons unified budget ploy
President Lyndon Johnson, a clever political dealmaker, came up with the concept for the unified budget for the 1969 fiscal year as he was about to finish his final year in office. The proposal unified Social Security with the rest of the federal budget. This clever maneuver allowed the hefty Social Security surpluses to be spent to cover the growing deficits in the federal budget. Here was another short term solution with longer term consequences. We are now coming to the end of the Social Security surplus years, and four decades of surpluses have been spent. The lock box is now stuffed with paper IOUs and little else.
Rotten to the core
Not to be outdone by prior administrations, President Nixon requested that Fed Chairman Arthur Burns develop the concept of core inflation statistics. Headline inflation was rising in the early 1970s and Nixon wanted a method to make the inflation number more politically palatable. Core inflation would be used to exclude those volatile categories such as food and energy.
This all sounds like déjà vu all over again. In his article, Phillips quotes economic commentator Barry Ritholtz as labeling core inflation inflation ex-inflation. That is the general idea, as politicians sought creative ways to bolster their administrations and fool the American people. President Nixon soon discovered the folly in that general concept.
BLS adds to the BS under Reagan
The Reagan administration added a critical element to the inflation manipulation game when they convinced the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in 1983 that housing inflation was overstating the CPI. The BLS came up with the concept of owners equivalent rent which estimated what a homeowner might get for renting his or her house. As home prices spiraled upward in the late 1980s and mid 2000s, the CPI omitted rampant housing inflation. Phillips points out that low inflation rates makes it easier to borrow money, and an artificially low CPI encouraged the speculative expansion in private debt starting in the late 1980s.
Distortion heats up in the 1990s
Following Reagan, President George H.W. Bush had his turn at the plate. In 1990, Bushs chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Michael Boskin, proposed a series of changes to economic statistics to reduce the measured rate of inflation. Under a smokescreen of making the methodology relevant to the new economy, the critics clearly saw this as a ploy to reduce rapidly growing government outlays.
Clinton follows up
The changes proposed by the Boskin Commission were not implemented until 1996 under President Clinton and with the support of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. The inflation statistics were now subject to the oft-discussed concepts of product substitution, hedonic adjustments and geometric weighting which have greatly contributed to the current underestimating of inflation.
The end of M3
The second President Bush kicked the ball along a little further by introducing an experimental CPI calculation in 2002, which shaved 0.3% off the official CPI. And in 2006, the Bush Administration stopped publishing M3 statistics, which would effectively highlight both rising money supply growth and rising inflation concerns. The laughable excuse from the Federal Reserve for deleting M3 was the expense of compiling the information. For an organization that prints money, the cost wouldnt even amount to a rounding error.
Retirees have been shortchanged
Economic statistician John Williams of Shadowstats.com tracks the pre-Clinton era CPI on his website, and is frequently quoted regarding inflation statistics. If you were to peel back changes that were made in the CPI going back to the Carter years, youd see that the CPI would now be 3.5% to 4% higher, said Williams. Phillips notes that because of lost CPI increases Social Security checks would be 70% higher than they are currently. This would certainly have made a difference for many seniors relying on Social Security who have seen devastating declines in their lifestyles during the past two decades.
Moral compass out of whack
Americans misunderstood the nature of capitalism itself. It is not an economic system that makes people automatically richer. It is a moral system
a system that rewards virtue and punishes error. You dont get richer because of Free Enterprise. Indeed, as the economic history of the last quarter-century shows, you can get poorer. The market system merely provides the setting in which you get what you deserve. You could get rich- if you were to do the right thing: work hard, save your money, innovate, take chances, forgo consumption. But do the wrong thing
and you will pay for it.
When you spend more than you can afford, you get poorer. Thats the rule. So it should come as no surprise that Americans are getting poorer
though they are just beginning to realize it. Bill Bonner
When the system is distorted however, the moral compass can be out of whack. Bad decisions can be rewarded and good decisions can be punished, at least for awhile. Thats what a system rife with manipulated statistics, untested financial instruments and easy credit will do. People will lose wealth and not even realize it until the music stops and reality is restored. Unfortunately, economic reality will be an unwelcome surprise to millions who have only known the debt-based economy of the last twenty years.
Walking in quicksand
Kevin Phillips is an historian with an understanding that times change but human nature remains the same.
Transparency is the hallmark of democracy, said Phillips. But we now find ourselves with economic statistics every bit as opaque, and as vulnerable to double-dealing, as a sub-prime CDO.
Were mainstream interest rates to jump into the 7 to 9 percent range, which could happen if inflation were to spur new concern, both Washington and Wall Street would be walking in quicksand. The make-believe economy of the past two decades, with its asset bubbles, massive borrowing, and rampant data distortion, would be in serious jeopardy.
For the individual, the moral to the story is one of self-reliance. That means reducing personal debt, spending less than you make, and taking government statistics with a large grain of salt. It also means investing in areas such as natural resources that are a hedge against higher levels of inflation. The music may stop playing one of these days and it would be a good idea to have a chair (or life raft) within reach.
| 2008/7/10 12:27||Profile|
I took this part of today's news article to point out the foolishness that abounds today...
"Bernanke in recent days has called for stronger oversight of big Wall Street firms, which are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Those firms have been given unprecedented -- albeit temporary -- access to tap the Fed for emergency loans, a privilege that has been granted for years to commercial banks, which are more tightly regulated.
With credit problems persisting, the Fed may extend the lending privilege to investment banks into next year, Bernanke has said.
The Fed chief called on Congress to consider giving the central bank explicit authority to oversee systems that process payments and other financial transactions by investment firms as well as banks."
The Federal Reserve which represents the private banking industry is taking advantage of the financial instability and caos to gain more control of the American financial system.
Why would one give more control to a group who are instrumental in destroying the value of the dollar???
Greenspan and now Bernanke are primarily responsible for the moral hazards that our people are now facing.
| 2008/7/10 12:43||Profile|
Another bailout looming...just another day as Satan works his deceptions...
Our leaders preach free market principles. They castigate other nations for nationalizing their oil fields. Yet,our leaders now are nationalizing the failed financial system. At least the other nations are realizing a financial gain. We are realizing failed debt.
Fannie, Freddie plunge on rescue report
News that government has begun to consider what to do if mortgage finance giants collapse sends battered shares sharply lower again.
CNN This week, 12pm ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The pounding of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continued Thursday, reflecting concerns about their solvency - and raising fresh anxieties about the impact their collapse would have on the U.S. housing market and broad economy.
The Wall Street Journal early Thursday said that Bush administration officials have held talks about what to do in the event the two government-sponsored firms falter. Late Thursday, the New York Times reported on its web site that officials are mulling the possibility of taking over one or both of the companies and placing them into conservatorship.
The government doesn't expect the firms to fail and no rescue plan is imminent, according to the papers. But both papers reported that talks, which it said had previously been part of normal contingency planning, have become more serious recently.
In addition, William Poole, the former president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, told Bloomberg in a Thursday report that the companies are already "insolvent."
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson tried to allay some of the concerns, saying the firms are "working through this challenging period."
Isa 2:11 The lofty looks of man shall be humbled, and the haughtiness of men shall be bowed down, and the LORD alone shall be exalted in that day.
Isa 2:12 ¶ For the day of the LORD of hosts [shall be] upon every [one that is] proud and lofty, and upon every [one that is] lifted up; and he shall be brought low:
| 2008/7/11 8:33||Profile|
...there is a problem with the shortcut...follow the trail to Financial Sense Online
Select the audio titled...The Greatest Crime in History
I do not understand half of what these men discuss in this interview but one can see that the decay of our financial system began in the 1970s.
This interview provides a glimpse of the dark world of Babylon...
| 2008/7/17 14:46||Profile|