On Friday the Economic Cycle Research Institute declared a
recession as beginning in the USA. This caused quite a stir in
financial circles, since for 25 years the ECRI has never made a
wrong call in these matters.
This follows on from a 3-month wave of selling in the Stockmarket
that has seen stocks worldwide suffer their worst quarter since the
collapse of 2008-2009.
Extracts from the ECRI release are below:
"Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is
indeed tipping into a new recession. And theres nothing that policy
makers can do to head it off.
"ECRIs recession call isnt based on just one or two leading
indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes.
"A new recession isnt simply a statistical event. Its a vicious cycle
that, once started, must run its course. Under certain circumstances,
a drop in sales, for instance, lowers production, which results in
declining employment and income, which in turn weakens sales
further, all the while spreading like wildfire from industry to industry,
region to region, and indicator to indicator. Thats what a recession
is all about.
"Its important to understand that recession doesnt mean a bad
economy weve had that for years now. It means an economy
that keeps worsening, because its locked into a vicious cycle. It
means that the jobless rate, already above 9%, will go much higher,
and the federal budget deficit, already above a trillion dollars, will soar.
"Heres what ECRIs recession call really says: if you think this is
a bad economy, you havent seen anything yet. And that has
profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street."
It is very rare for ECRI to make a call this strong and this definite.
That is why economists sit up and take real note when they do so.
ECRI is the most respected organization in their field, and they
lay their reputation on the line in making it. But for praying people
who have been preparing their hearts for this very time, there should
be nothing to fear in these events - since they have been clearly
prophesied beforehand. Spiritually speaking, for those who are
prepared, I believe this can be a time of great growth and opportunity.
But what are you seeing, my friends? Have those of you who live in
the USA noticed a renewed sluggishness or downturn in the last
month or two? We would be interested to hear your insights.
SI Moderator - Greg Gordon