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 Re: The Dynamics of the 8/9/07 Stock Market Panic ... continue ...



[b]Fed slashes rates in [/b][predicted] [b]shock move[/b]

The US Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates to 3.5%, its biggest cut in 25 years.


[url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7218055.stm]From the BBC: US rates cut to avoid recession[/url]

[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/player/nol/newsid_7210000/newsid_7218900?redirect=7218924.stm&news=1&nbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1&bbram=1&asb=1]Watch: Bush on the economy[/url]

 2008/1/31 0:57
rookie
Member



Joined: 2003/6/3
Posts: 4790


 Re:

'It's going to be much worse'
Famed investor Jim Rogers sees hard times ahead for the United States - and a big opportunity looming in China.
By Brian O'Keefe, senior editor



Jim Rogers says the Fed, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, are out of control.
Legendary investor Jim Rogers made a bundle by anticipating a boom in commodities. Now he's focusing on the People's Republic.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- You might expect Jim Rogers to be gloating a little bit. After all, the famed investor has been predicting a recession in the U.S. economy for months and shorting the shares of now-tanking Wall Street investment banks for even longer. And with fears of a recession sparking both a worldwide market sell-off and emergency action from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, Rogers again looks prescient - just as he has over the past few years as the China-driven commodities boom he predicted almost a decade ago began kicked into high gear. But when I reached him by phone in Singapore the other day there was little hint of celebration in his voice. Instead, he took a serious tone.

"I'm extremely worried," he says. "I have been for a while, but I just see things getting much worse this time around than I expected." To Rogers, a longtime Fed critic, Bernanke's decision to ride to the market's rescue with a 75-basis-point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate only a week before its scheduled meeting is the latest sign that the central bank isn't willing to provide the fiscal discipline that he thinks the economy desperately needs.

"Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I'm afraid it's going to be much worse," he says. "Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He's out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene."

Rogers looks at the Fed's willingness to add liquidity to an already inflationary environment and sees the history of the 1970s repeating itself. Does that mean stagflation? "It is a real danger and, in fact, a probability."

Where the opportunities are
The 1970s, of course, was when Rogers first made his reputation - and a lot of money - as George Soros's original partner in the Quantum Fund. And despite his gloomy outlook for the U.S., he still sees opportunities in today's world. In fact, he sees the recent correction as a potential gift for investors who know where to head in global markets: China.

Rogers has been fascinated with China ever since he rode his motorcycle across the country two decades ago, and he's been a full-fledged China bull for several years. In December he published his latest book, an investor-friendly tome titled "A Bull in China: How to Invest Profitably in the World's Greatest Market." And that same month he sold his beloved Manhattan townhouse for $15.75 million to a daughter of oil tycoon H. L. Hunt and moved his family full-time to Singapore - the better to be closer to the action in Beijing and Shanghai. (He bought the New York mansion 30 years ago for just over $100,000; not a bad return on his investment.)

But in a November interview I conducted with Rogers, he admitted that he was rooting for a serious correction in China to cool off an overheating market and bring back prices to a reasonable level. With the bourses in Shanghai and Hong Kong both some 20% of their recent highs as of late January, Rogers says he's starting to consider new investments.

"I'm delighted to see what's happening in Shanghai and Hong Kong," he says. "As I've said, if things hadn't cooled off, the Chinese market was in danger of turning into a bubble. I find this most encouraging. The government's been doing its best to try and cool things off. Mainly they've been trying to deal with real estate but it's having an effect on stocks, too. I would suspect the correction isn't quite over in China. But I'm gearing up. I didn't put in any orders for tomorrow but I'm starting to prepare my list of things to buy in China. Whether I buy this week or this month or this quarter, who knows. But I'm starting to think about buying new shares in China for the first time in a while. And I'm not thinking about buying in America."

Ultimately, Rogers doesn't think that the troubles in the United States will be much of a drag on the prospects for the People's Republic. "Anybody who sells to Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) or Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) is going to be affected, without question," he says. "Some parts of the Chinese economy are going to be untouched, however. They won't even know America's in recession. They won't care if America falls off the face of the earth."

“We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene.”


(end of article)

The things that Rahman and Ironman saw coming began in 2007. The results will be long in manifestation. The leaders of this country are printing paper money to wall paper over the failed banking system.

In Christ
Jeff


_________________
Jeff Marshalek

 2008/1/31 8:34Profile









 Re:

Quote:
Famed investor Jim Rogers sees hard times ahead for the United States - and a big opportunity looming in China.

(fyi) According to David Wilkerson's "The Vision", he states that countries that have a huge inventory of U.S. Dollars are going to be hurt badly, China is one of those countries.

 2008/1/31 10:06
Compton
Member



Joined: 2005/2/24
Posts: 2732


 Re:

I'll just say it once again...blending faith in biblical prophecy in with secular punditry is strange alchemy.

I think Sermon Index practices that alchemy now; half reminiscing revivals, half progressivism prophecy. Sooner or later someone is going to have to decide what the purpose of this forum is...and if the forum's function and personality is congruent with the sermons archived here.

As it is, I think speculative threads like this, make the forum as mere straw amidst gold.

Blessings brethren,

MC


_________________
Mike Compton

 2008/1/31 10:53Profile









 Re: The Dynamics of the 8/9/07 Stock Market Panic ... continue ...



Hi Mike,

Quote:
as mere straw amidst gold

Do you mean you don't like the News and Current Events forum, or, just the topic of this thread, as it falls within the whole range of opportunities for discussion on Sermonindex?

... and I do realise that what follows might be put in the category of [i]and she, willing to justify herself, said... [/i], but I honestly don't have any background of understanding these matters, by which to guide my actions in 3D, which transfers readily or easily from the myrrh, frankincense and gold or three measures of meal, silver and denarius of the Bible.

Therefore, I see it as a matter of not being ignorant about the enemy's devices. Of course, knowing them is not a substitute - nor intended to be one - for knowing, each individually, how the Lord would have one's finances distributed.

Today, I was considering the whole matter of saving and whether that is appropriate at all, and whether there is real need for Christians to invest in one another's businesses, rather than stock markets. Even, to consider that having that much money might be [i]sin[/i]...

Up till now, I've believed that God knows we are 'in' the world but not 'of' it, and as long as we are not aware of the precise evil which may be being done behind the scenes in a business, we do still have to trade our wages for the things we need to go on living. But, if it's true that the time will come when we literally cannot buy or sell because we [i]do[/i] recognise the system we'd have to join as 'evil', then, how much too soon can we be preparing for the meaning of [i]going through with God?[/i]

Genuinely, I am exercised by these thoughts, and knowing that many Christians are being given the idea around the world that the more blessed they are, the more money they will have and the more comfortable their living, I believe it is valid to make believers aware that money might lose them everything - even their spiritual life - if that's where their heart is.

Maybe this thread was not about this originally, but it's why I post on the topic. I'm not eating my heart out over anything else but how to steward what I find in my charge.

 2008/1/31 14:15









 Re:

Quote:
I'll just say it once again...blending faith in biblical prophecy in with secular punditry is strange alchemy.



I believe the Christian call is to walk by faith not by sight.

All this is keeping your eyes on the world, and off of Jesus Christ.

Katy

 2008/2/1 8:12
rookie
Member



Joined: 2003/6/3
Posts: 4790


 Re:

Everywhere one looks...the politicians of the world are comming up with new ideas on how to keep the system from failing...here is another scheme that would bailout the schemers...

New $20B subprime bailout on the table
Senator Chris Dodd proposes setting up a fund that would buy defaulting subprime mortgages and restructure loans for borrowers.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A proposal to bail out subprime mortgage borrowers who are at risk of foreclosure was floated at a Senate Banking Committee hearing Thursday.

Senator Chris Dodd, the committee chair, said he is working to create a Home Ownership Preservation Corporation, which would purchase mortgage securities that are backed by at-risk, subprime loans from lenders and investors.

This corporation would give these lenders and investors a better price for the securities than they would get if the properties backing them were put through foreclosure.

Additionally the loans on these properties would be restructured so that borrowers could afford the new payments and remain in their homes.

Lesser of two evils
Although economists believe that the mortgage backed securities would sell at a steep discount to their original values under this scenario, they contend that investors would still recoup more of their outlay this way, rather than going through the expensive foreclosure process.

Borrowers could see their monthly costs drop dramatically.

According to today's testimony, the fund might require $20 billion to $25 billion in seed money from taxpayers and, after that, it should self-fund.

Dodd said his proposal is supported by both ends of the ideological spectrum. He pointed out that two of the witnesses testifying on Thursday in support of this bailout - Michael Barr, from the progressive Center for American Progress, and Alex Pollack, with the conservative American Enterprise Institute - are usually on opposite sides of economic issues.

But there was dissent from members of the Banking Committee. Senator Bunning, R-Ky., said "Government meddling could make matters worse."

Senator Bob Corker, R-Tenn., was concerned about the "moral hazard" of rewarding borrowers' risky behavior.

But in his testimony, Barr insisted, "This is not a bailout for investors and speculators. Investors would take a hit in exchange for liquidity and certainty."

Barr added that they'll get back much less than what they paid for the securities, and pointed out that only owners who occupy their homes will be eligible for loan modification.

"Ninety percent of the time, [government] intervention is not a good idea," said the more conservative Alex Pollock, who would generally prefer market corrections to address a problem. "But we're in the 10 percent of the time when it is needed."

A big step
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, suggested a plan similar to Dodd's in early December, and agrees that it's a big and very complicated step. "But we have to prepare for the possibility that something like this will be necessary," he said.

And he contended that any bailout must be made with taxpayer money. "It has to have the triple A credit of the United States backing it," he said.

The biggest problem facing housing, according to Zandi, is that the market is frozen, because investors who buy mortgage-backed securities have abandoned that market. That's created a liquidity squeeze which has made it difficult for even well-qualified borrowers to obtain a loan.

Zandi thinks the fund should buy existing mortage-backed securities in an auction-type process, which would immediately establish what those securities are really worth.

"As soon as there's a price [for the securities], there's a market," Zandi said. "Everyone can then start appropriately valuing what's on their books."

Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive, Washington-based think-tank, agrees. "Auctioning the debt to discover its true price might be ugly but it's the way to go," he said. "You can't hit bottom until transparency is back in the system and this will help bring it back."

Bernstein added that such a plan is not unprecedented. "There's a long history of the government providing precisely this kind of help for people facing foreclosure," he said.

The American Enterprise Institute's Pollock compared the Dodd proposal with the Homeowners Loan Corporation, which operated during the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Pollock also conceded that the program is not without flaws. It could reward some people who bought more home than they could afford, while leaving more responsible borrowers unaided.

Might some of these people be tempted to stop making mortgage payments for a couple of months in order to get a government-sponsored cheaper loan?

"You're going to have some people going into default to get into the government program. That's part of the cost you have to reckon with," he said.

There are currently several government-backed efforts underway to combat the housing crisis.

The stimulus package now before Congress would raise the caps on loans that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae can purchase in the secondary markets to create more liquidity, while a hike in FHA caps would do the same. Meanwhile,Federal Reserve has moved swiftly to cut interest rates, which will also put more money into credit markets.

"All these efforts may not be enough," said Zandi. "[But this bailout] will cost taxpayers a lot less money than leaving the market in a deep freeze."


(end of article)

To highlight one thought of this article...

The American Enterprise Institute's Pollock compared the Dodd proposal with the Homeowners Loan Corporation, which operated during the Great Depression in the 1930s.

In Christ
Jeff


_________________
Jeff Marshalek

 2008/2/1 8:21Profile
davym
Member



Joined: 2007/5/22
Posts: 319


 Re:

Quote:
I'll just say it once again...blending faith in biblical prophecy in with secular punditry is strange alchemy.



Quote:
I think Sermon Index practices that alchemy now; half reminiscing revivals, half progressivism prophecy. Sooner or later someone is going to have to decide what the purpose of this forum is...and if the forum's function and personality is congruent with the sermons archived here.



Quote:
As it is, I think speculative threads like this, make the forum as mere straw amidst gold.




Great post. All I would say is that some of the links provided on this thread have given me quite interesting insights into the current credit crisis which aren't available in newspapers and TV.

We could have had discussions like these (obviously without the aid of a computer) in 1929 and I suspect the speculative nonsense would have been much more inflated.


_________________
David

 2008/2/1 11:43Profile
ccchhhrrriiisss
Member



Joined: 2003/11/23
Posts: 4489


 Re:

Hi dorcas…

I think that I understand what Compton is trying to say. I also agree with the gist of his post.

Lately, there have been a lot of supposed “watchers” who post news that they gather from the internet (or even “prophetic warnings” that they personally receive). The reason for this is simple: We are told by Christ to “watch” (in Matthew 24). These individuals go about their activities as if it were a “duty” or a special and often misunderstood “calling” to “watch.” But what things, exactly, are we told to “watch?” Are we supposed to watch the [i]events[/i]? Are we purposed to watch for [i]conspiracies[/i]? Are we supposed to watch for [i]evil[/i]? Or are we supposed to watch for [u]Christ[/u]? In my understanding of this command, we are supposed to look for our Lord’s return, and glimpse at the events around us as a prophetic “clock” that makes us somewhat “aware” of the hour.

Is this what is being done? Are we eagerly focusing upon the return of our Lord while paying attention to the events that remind us that His coming is soon? Or are we focused upon scrutinizing each of the daily events that may or may not be part of Satan’s rush to conquer before the End of all things? Many of the supposed “watchmen” are doing a wonderful job enlightening the world about the times in which we live. Still other supposed “watchmen” are mingling their information with specific commentary (in regard to the exact nature of certain events).

Is this really what the Lord had in mind when He told us to “watch?”

Recently, I followed a link into a “discernment” website with a partial focus on eschatology that was literally discussing a recent photograph taken by one of NASA’s Mars rovers. The image became popular because, if one looked hard enough, one of the rocks resembled an image of a “running bigfoot.” People were discussing what role this image might play in Biblical Eschatology. There was talk about last day visions of angels and demons and signs in the heavens.

A rock. That looks like Bigfoot running. A discussion of “Bible prophecy” because of our command to “watch.”

If people were a little more “discerning” (or “watchful”), then perhaps they would understand that the rock is only about two inches tall (Is it me, or does that sound like a mighty small demon?) and distorted by shadows. Of course, this is simply an extreme example of the extent of such “watching” that takes place. While there is never a problem with the supply of “news and current events” that people present (when we look at it objectively and prayerfully), I don’t think this effort is left at that. There is the question about the addition of [u]commentary[/u]. Sometimes, this commentary alleges something that is not distinguished by simply viewing or hearing the news reports. In addition, there is sometimes disappointment when someone doesn’t completely agree with the commentary, interpretation or “link” between the news and Biblical eschatology.

Sometimes, the “link” that is silently implied between [i]news[/i] and [i]views[/i]. Sometimes the “link” might very well be correct; sometimes it might not be. At times, there appears to be an attempt to “read between the lines” of paragraphs (well, stories) that aren’t even pertaining to the same subject. For instance: Some believe that the Antichrist will command a one-world government. We know that Bush is the President of the most powerful nation on Earth. We know that Bush supports the NAFTA treaty approved by Congress and the Clinton Administration in 1992. Thus, we become suspicious that President Bush might secretly desire to create a one-world government in the Western Hemisphere. Hence, stories that speak of “secret meetings” and “secret alliances” tend to confirm our suspicions. The more we read “news” from certain websites and with a perspective that Bush might be part of an underlying conspiracy at work, the more “links” we are able to find. Sadly, those who disagree are considered by some to be either “blind” or are in “danger” of being “deceived.”

Is this what we are called to do? Is this the extent of our call to “watch?”

Are we supposed to be “private investigators” of the End Times? Are we called to rely on our “gift of discernment” and go about using the Internet and media to gather rumors and information in order to determine supposedly “precise” ideas about Bible prophecy? Is this the extent of our mandate to “watch?” It seems to me that the believers without access to such materials would be at a far greater disadvantage than those with a high speed DSL. How would they “watch?” Are they called to “subscribe” to the monthly newsletters of such “ministries of discernment” and spend their lives finding such links? Or are we supposed to simply watch for our Lord’s return – focused on Him (rather than specific times and events) while understanding an indistinct timeline (Acts 1:6-7)? What are we supposed to be watching for?

Recently, my wife and I inherited a dog (sort of). After we were married, we moved into a home outside of town. It is a quiet road, which can be a little unnerving to my wife (especially if I am not home at the time). We have a small back yard, with a pasture of mesquite brush and horses and cows on the other side of our fence. Our nearest neighbor owns a small trucking company. He is gone most of the time, and his little black puppy began venturing out of the fence and wonder over to our house. After feeling pity for this hungry little dog, we bought some Milk-Bone doggie biscuits.

As the dog (we call her “Poochie”) has grown quite a bit over the past few months, we have now started buying large bags of [i]Gravy Train[/i] style of dog food. Poochie happily plays with the cows and calves behind the fence. We spend time with the dog on our car port. The dog truly feels like part of our family. The neighbor stopped by one day after noticing that the dog likes us so much, and he asked if we could watch him when he is gone. The neighbor just wants Poochie to be a watchdog when he is gone. Since we would like the same thing (and we have grown quite attached to the dog), we happily agreed. Poochies spends most of her time in our driveway. She is not on a leash, but travels from his property to ours.

Poochie has become quite attached to us. When my wife or I leave, Poochie will sit in our driveway looking quite sad. She will wait there for hours until we return. When my wife drives off, I sometimes look out the window and notice Poochie looking down the road in the direction my wife drives. She is smart enough to realize that this will be the direction in which she returns. During the meanwhile, she barks when something doesn’t quite look right. The road in front of our house is well-traveled by illegal immigrants heading north, so Poochie alerts us of potential danger. Poochie is not doing this because he wants attention. Poochie is not doing this because he is fearful of danger. Poochie is doing this because he wants to alert us of possible danger.

I’ve observed Poochie and wondered whether or not this is the type of “watching” that the Lord wants from us. Poochie doesn’t try to read between the lines or find links between friends, strangers and illegal immigrants. He doesn’t see a stranger and try to warn us that this could be a potential axe murderer or burglar. In fact, she isn’t “looking” for danger at all. She spends most of her time simply looking and waiting for us to return and spend time with her. Poochie just makes observations about things around the house and alerts us when things aren’t normal. Poochies is smart enough now to realize that at certain times of the day (noon and 5 P.M.), we will be returning. At that time, she is almost always waiting in our driveway for us to return.

Please forgive my little anecdote. I know that the command of the Lord to “watch” is somewhat different than that of a dog looking for her master. But I think that there is a parallel where people do mean well in their supposed “discernment.” However, I think that the error is made when they begin to read too far into the things that they are watching. Then, they often share their “knowledge” (which is often actually an opinion or an assumption) with anyone who will listen. And far too often, the focus of our “watch” is taken from the Lord and placed upon the things of this world.

Sometimes, I feel that this is not what the Lord meant when He told us to watch. He simply wanted us to be aware of the times (through the things that he has told us). He wants us to be aware of deception. But if we are spending our lives truly fellowshipping with the Lord, is there so great a chance of deception? I’ve noticed that many “watchers” are quick to throw the “d” word (“deception”) at anyone who doesn’t agree with their interpretation of events (or even doctrines about the manner of the Lord’s return [i.e. a “rapture” or not]).

Lately, there has been a very noticeable rise in discussions about prophecy (either Biblical eschatology or “personal revelation”). In both cases, I’ve noticed that “warnings” are given to those who aren’t “mature enough” to understand or accept the validity of such things. Is this the purpose of SermonIndex? Are we supposed to simply gather a bunch of believers together and allow them to discuss what they “discern” will happen (specifically) in regard to notions of conspiracy? Are we supposed to gather the news and then decipher what that news means in specific terms of the Lord’s timetable of prophetic events – or are we simply supposed to be [u]aware[/u] of the times? I would much prefer to spend my life learning from the Lord (including how to know Him more, learn more about the things that He has done, and to learn how to bring that knowledge of HIM to others) than to spend my life in a forensic pursuit of a timetable and links between conspiracies and events in which He has already fully warned us about.

Anyway, forgive my intrusion. I don’t mean to speak for Brother Compton, and I certainly didn’t want to compare would be “watchers” with our neighbor’s dog. I simply concur that we should remember the focus of our pursuit (both in life and in the mission of SermonIndex) is to remain centered upon the Lord (while considering the old paths) and not upon the events around us (except as a means to be aware of the times). A “watchmen” has his/her place. But what are they supposed to be looking for? When are they supposed to sound the alarm? Are they “watching” the facts about our times or venturing into conspiracy theories? Are they supposed to provide allegations of conspiracy – or a mere warning about issues? Are they raising our eyes to the hills (and to the Lord’s return) or to a paranoia of the world around us? We should certainly be attentive of the things relating to prophecy, but we should not spend ourselves in the pursuit of forensic prophetic discovery that goes beyond merely pointing to pure facts. Why not simply point to the “signs” and merely leave it at that (without the addition of allegation, assumption, interpretation and commentary)?

There is certainly a timeline that will take place in regard to the Lord’s return. And there is certainly a sinister conspiracy that has been in operation since the Creation of this world. But are we to be led by these things? Are we supposed to spend our precious limited time in the pursuit of the events of the end – or in the glorification of our Lord? Have we complicated our “call” to “watch” by adding a mandate to explore various allegations of conspiracy? Or are we simply supposed to be aware of the times and events that transpire around us while remembering what the end of all things will be? How can we panic if our eyes are in the right place? Rather, “we would see Jesus.”

:-)

Please understand that this is neither an attack on those who feel called to such a ministry of discernment or a special calling to "watch" and "sound alarms." In a sense, I feel that SermonIndex (and all of us) are called to "sound the alarm" about how the modern "Church" is ill-prepared for the Lord's return. This has little to do with "doctrinal differences" or the "discernment of the times around us" more than it does the gravity of our love and regard for our Savior. Does our life and "vision" revolve around the person of our Lord?


_________________
Christopher

 2008/2/1 12:57Profile
pastorfrin
Member



Joined: 2006/1/19
Posts: 1406


 Re:

Hi Chris,

A few questions;
Is not your extended post, here and elsewhere on these subjects, considered as ‘commentary’?

Are we to believe you over someone else on what you perceive as fact, allegation, assumption, interpretation and commentary? Why?

Please understand that this is not an attack on you and please excuse my intrusion, I feel most everyone who reads these threads are capable of searching and finding the truth.

Too many times in the history of man, the truth has been hid and the results have been disastrous.
Many times the means by which the truth is hid is by the means of proclaiming it as a conspiracy theory. Should we be afraid of the search for the truth?
If so why, who is to gain by proclaiming all as conspiracy? Surly it would not be the truth.

I like to think of these things in this manner.

Acts 5:38-39
And now I say unto you, Refrain from these men, and let them alone: for if this counsel or this work be of men, it will come to nought: [39] But if it be of God, ye cannot overthrow it; lest haply ye be found even to fight against God.

If it be a conspiracy, it will bare itself out as such, it will come to nought: But if it be the truth many have been warned and are able to watch and pray and that is where all our wisdom is to come from.

John 14:26
But the Comforter, which is the Holy Ghost, whom the Father will send in my name, he shall teach you all things, and bring all things to your remembrance, whatsoever I have said unto you.

John 16:13
Howbeit when he, the Spirit of truth, is come, he will guide you into all truth: for he shall not speak of himself; but whatsoever he shall hear, that shall he speak: and he will shew you things to come.

I do believe our Lord through the Holy Spirit is well able to show us all truth and show us things to come and it could actually come through what some call “a conspiracy theory”.

:-)

In His Love
pastorfrin

 2008/2/1 14:25Profile





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